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This one does not,” said chair of the committee, Margaret Beckett, MP.“Scenario planning is often thought of as a tool for innovation — and it is.
Impact and Uncertainty are qualitative measures, so you should decide on your own scoring scale.
Whatever scale you use, be sure that you are consistent in your relative scoring for each driver. After scoring, you can now group your potential drivers into three categories based on their two scores: Critical Uncertainties are, obviously, the most important and what you should use to construct your scenarios!
To do so, we’ll evaluate each driver by scoring them in two different dimensions: Going back to our electronics company, the cost of your components to build your product has low uncertainty (unlikely to change without warning) but high impact (effects your margins).
At the same time, competitive product launches have high uncertainty (you don’t know what your competition is planning) and high impact (may reduce sales).
Let’s walk through a few simple steps for identifying all your driving trends. Brainstorm all of the possible driving trends that might exist for your business.
Persuasive Essay Into The Wild - Business Scenario Planning
This will likely be a very large list, so look for similarities and larger trends that might contain many different trends.
Prior to Scenario Planning, much military planning was done in ways similar to the Impact Analysis techniques,where the future was assumed to be very similar to the present.
That is to say, there are things that we know we don’t know. There are things we don’t know we don’t know.” Scenario Planning is a planning technique originally developed in the 1950s to help the military better plan for unexpected changes.
I’ve already put a slide together on the scenarios we generated as a group in the program, and my team will be using it to initiate and frame a strategic discussion.
We need to formulate strategy with these scenarios in mind.” But Gelinas explains that scenario planning is just one of the takeaways of the program.